How Trump Could Lose the GOP Nomination in 2024 | The Latest Election News
Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, but he is not invincible. In this article, we will explore the factors that could derail his bid for a second term and the potential challengers who are waiting in the wings. We will also look at the latest news and polls from the 2024 election cycle, including the upcoming second GOP debate, the Democrats’ strategy on abortion rights, and the special counsel’s team that is preparing to put Trump on trial. Stay tuned for an exciting and informative analysis of the 2024 election.
Trump has dominated the Republican field since he left office in January 2021, maintaining a loyal base of supporters and a tight grip on the party apparatus. He has also raised more money than any other potential candidate, with over $100 million in his political action committees as of June 202¹¹. He has repeatedly teased his intention to run again in 2024 and has endorsed several candidates who share his agenda and style.
However, Trump also faces several challenges that could undermine his chances of winning the nomination. One of them is his legal troubles, which have intensified in recent months. In June 2021, the Manhattan district attorney’s office announced that it had convened a grand jury to consider criminal charges against Trump and his business associates². The investigation focuses on possible tax fraud, bank fraud, and insurance fraud involving the Trump Organization. In addition, Trump is also facing a federal criminal case in Florida, where he is accused of mishandling classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago resort³. The special counsel’s office has asked for a trial date in December 2021 and has requested a gag order on Trump to prevent him from interfering with the case⁴.
Another challenge for Trump is the changing political landscape, which may not favour his divisive and populist approach. The 2020 election showed that Trump’s base was not enough to secure him a second term, as he lost to Joe Biden by more than 7 million votes and 74 electoral votes⁵. He also failed to expand his coalition beyond his core supporters, alienating many suburban, college-educated, and minority voters. Moreover, he faced a backlash from some Republicans who blamed him for inciting the violent insurrection at the Capitol on January 6, 202¹⁶. Some of them have formed anti-Trump groups, such as the Lincoln Project and Republican Voters Against Trump, to oppose his influence on the party.
Trump also has to contend with a crowded and competitive field of rivals, who may challenge him in the primaries or run as independent candidates in the general election. Some of them are former allies who have turned against him, such as former Vice President Mike Pence and former Attorney General Bill Barr. Others are rising stars who have gained popularity and support among different segments of the party, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Some of them have already indicated their interest in running for president in 2024 or beyond⁷.
The second GOP debate, which will take place on September 27 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California⁸, will be an opportunity for these candidates to showcase their credentials and contrast themselves with Trump. The debate will be moderated by Fox Business hosts Stuart Varney and Dana Perino, and Univision anchor Ilia Calderón. It will be broadcast on Fox Business Network, Rumble, and Univision. The qualifying criteria for the debate are higher than the first one, which was held on August 23 in Milwaukee⁹. Candidates need to have at least 3% support in two national polls or one national poll and one state poll, as well as 50,000 donors with at least 200 unique donors in 20 states.
According to Politico’s tracker[¹⁰^], eight candidates have qualified for the second debate so far: Trump, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Pence, Haley, Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and Doug Burgum. Ryan Binkley, Perry Johnson, Asa Hutchinson, Will Hurd, Larry Elder, and Francis Suarez have not qualified yet. Trump skipped the first debate and gave a speech in Detroit instead¹¹, but he has not announced whether he will attend the second one or not.
While Trump is leading the Republican field by a wide margin in most polls¹², some surveys suggest that he may not be invulnerable. A recent CNN poll found that Biden would beat Trump by six points in a hypothetical rematch in 2024¹³. Another poll by Morning Consult found that DeSantis would edge out Trump by one point among Republican primary voters if Pence did not run¹⁴. A third poll by YouGov found that 29% of Republicans said they would prefer someone else to be the party’s nominee in 2024¹⁵.
On the other side of the aisle, the Democrats are also gearing up for the 2024 election, with Biden expected to seek a second term. However, Biden’s approval rating has declined in recent months, amid the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the surge of Covid-19 cases, and the stalled legislative agenda¹⁶. Some Democrats are also concerned about his age and health, as he will be 81 years old by the next election. Some potential successors or challengers include Vice President Kamala Harris, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, New York Governor Kathy Hochul, and Senator Bernie Sanders.
One of the issues that could define the 2024 election is abortion rights, which have come under attack from several Republican-led states. In September 2021, Texas enacted a law that bans abortions after six weeks of pregnancy and empowers private citizens to sue anyone who aids or abets an abortion¹⁷. The Supreme Court refused to block the law and is set to hear a case in December that could overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark ruling that established a constitutional right to abortion in 197³¹⁸.
In response, the House Democrats passed a bill on September 24 that would codify Roe v. Wade into federal law and protect access to abortion nationwide¹⁹. However, the bill faces an uphill battle in the Senate, where it needs 60 votes to overcome a Republican filibuster. Biden has expressed his support for the bill and has also vowed to defend abortion rights through executive actions and judicial appointments²⁰.
The 2024 election is still more than three years away, but the candidates and the issues are already shaping up. Trump remains the dominant force in the Republican Party, but he also faces legal, political, and personal challenges that could cost him the nomination or the presidency. The Democrats are hoping to capitalize on Trump’s weaknesses and mobilize their base around issues like abortion rights. The second GOP debate will be a crucial test for both Trump and his rivals, as they try to win over the voters and donors who will decide their fate.
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Source:
(1) 2024 polls: Trump leads Biden by ten points in ‘absurd’ new poll. https://news.yahoo.com/2024-polls-trump-leads-biden-135940379.html.
(2) Biden Back On Top: President Beats Trump, DeSantis In 2024 Election Polls Ahead. https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/09/34926397/biden-back-on-top-president-beats-trump-desantis-in-2024-election-polls-ahead.
(3) Trump gaining ground among Hispanic voters, poll shows. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/trump-gaining-ground-among-hispanic-voters-poll-shows/ar-AA1hj7bB.
(4) 2024 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin. https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/.
(5) President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/.
(6) CNN Poll: Trump leads 2024 GOP primary field, but many voters are open .... https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/24/politics/cnn-poll-republican-primary-field/index.html.
(7) High-stakes debate tests 2024 GOP. https://thehill.com/elections/4224426-high-stakes-debate-tests-2024-gop/.
(8) What you should know about the Republican debate and the race for the 2024 nomination. https://www.dailynews.com/2023/09/26/what-you-should-know-about-the-republican-debate-and-the-race-for-the-2024-nomination/.
(9) Factbox-Republicans to hold second 2024 presidential debate on Wednesday. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/factbox-republicans-to-hold-second-2024-presidential-debate-on-wednesday/ar-AA1hiAwf.
(10) 2024 Republican Party presidential debates and forums. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums.
(11) 2024 Presidential Debates: Track GOP Candidates, Schedules ... - POLITICO. https://www.politico.com/2024-election/presidential-debate-gop-candidates-schedule-moderators-polls-tracker/.
(12) Republicans schedule 1st presidential debate for Aug. 23, but there's .... https://apnews.com/article/republicans-debate-2024-president-august-6cc406eb00c72835f4f59acb30d71e95.
(13) House Democrats vote to establish federal right to abortion. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/24/house-democrats-abortion-federal-right-vote.
(14) Democrats are still searching for a coherent strategy to save abortion .... https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/12/politics/democrats-abortion-rights-2022-midterms/index.html.
(15) Opinions vary among Republicans, Democrats on several abortion-related .... https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/05/06/wide-partisan-gaps-in-abortion-attitudes-but-opinions-in-both-parties-are-complicated/.
(16) House Democrats introduce bill to restore federal abortion rights. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/03/30/house-democrats-introduce-bill-restore-federal-abortion-rights/11570943002/.
(17) Trump's lawyers accuse special counsel of seeking to "muzzle" him with request for gag order in election case. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trumps-lawyers-accuse-special-counsel-of-seeking-to-muzzle-him/ar-AA1hhQUU.
(18) Trump blasts special counsel's gag order request in federal election case. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-blasts-special-counsels-gag-order-request-in-federal-election-case/ar-AA1hhJMH.
(19) Trump fires back at special counselJack Smith over partial gag order request in Jan. 6 case. https://www.nydailynews.com/2023/09/26/trump-fires-back-at-jack-smith-over-partial-gag-order-request-in-jan-6-case/.
(20) Trump asks judge to reject gag order requested by prosecutors in ... - CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/26/politics/donald-trump-gag-order/index.html.
(21) Special counsel asks for December trial date for Trump in Mar-a-Lago .... https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/23/politics/trump-federal-trial-date-special-counsel/index.html.
